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How the Runoff Flipped: County-by-County Shifts Between Rounds

An in-depth look at how voter preferences shifted between the October first round and the November runoff, revealing which counties swung the election for Boakai.

2024-01-15
Election Analysis Team
2023PresidentialRunoffAnalysis

Overview

The 2023 Liberian presidential election required a runoff after no candidate secured 50%+1 in the first round. George Weah led with 43.83% to Joseph Boakai's 43.44% — a margin of just 7,126 votes out of over 1.8 million cast.

The November 14 runoff told a different story. Boakai won with 50.64% to Weah's 49.36%, a margin of 20,567 votes.

The Turnout Factor

One of the most significant shifts was turnout. National participation dropped from 78.9% in the first round to 66.1% in the runoff — a decline of over 314,000 voters. This drop was not uniform across counties.

Southeastern counties that strongly backed Weah — Grand Gedeh, Grand Kru, Maryland, and Sinoe — saw particularly sharp turnout declines. Meanwhile, Nimba County, Boakai's stronghold, maintained relatively higher engagement.

County-Level Swings

Counties that flipped to Boakai in the runoff:

Montserrado, the most populous county containing the capital Monrovia, was the decisive battleground. Weah carried it narrowly in Round 1, but Boakai won it 51.74% to 48.26% in the runoff — a swing of several percentage points that effectively decided the election.

Margibi County also shifted to Boakai, going from a competitive first round to a 53.99% Boakai win in the runoff.

Weah's strongholds held but weren't enough:

Grand Gedeh (90.29%), Grand Kru (91.69%), and Maryland (83.36%) delivered overwhelming margins for Weah, but these are smaller counties. Their combined runoff votes totaled about 120,000 — less than a fifth of Montserrado's total alone.

The Math of the Margins

Boakai's strategy was clear: win big in Nimba (74.14%) and Lofa (64.6%), compete closely in the urban centers of Montserrado and Margibi, and let Weah's southeastern dominance be outweighed by lower population. The math worked — barely.

Key Takeaways

  1. 1Montserrado was the kingmaker. With over 40% of all votes, whoever wins the capital wins the presidency.
  2. 2Turnout decline hurt Weah more. His base counties saw steeper drops in participation.
  3. 3Coalition building mattered. Boakai consolidated support from eliminated first-round candidates, particularly in swing counties.
  4. 4The margin was razor-thin. A shift of just 10,284 votes would have changed the outcome.
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