The Turnout Story
Liberia's 2023 election saw dramatically different turnout between its two rounds. The first round on October 10 drew 1,949,155 voters (78.9% of registered voters), while the November 14 runoff attracted only 1,634,183 (66.1%).
This 12.8 percentage point drop — representing over 314,000 fewer voters — had significant implications for the outcome.
Regional Patterns
Highest first-round turnout: Southeastern counties like Grand Kru and Grand Gedeh recorded turnout above 80%, driven by strong loyalty to incumbent President Weah.
Biggest runoff declines: These same southeastern counties saw the steepest drops. Voters whose preferred first-round candidates were eliminated may have stayed home, and the distance to polling stations in rural areas may have been a factor.
Urban vs. Rural: Montserrado County, the most urbanized, maintained relatively stable turnout between rounds, which benefited Boakai.
What Drove the Decline?
Several factors likely contributed to lower runoff turnout:
- •Candidate elimination: 18 of 20 first-round candidates were eliminated. Their combined first-round votes totaled over 230,000.
- •Voter fatigue: Returning to polls within five weeks may have discouraged some voters.
- •Perceived inevitability: Some voters may have felt the outcome was predetermined.
- •Weather and logistics: The November rainy season may have created access challenges in rural areas.
Implications
The turnout data suggests that mobilizing supporters — not just winning them over — was the critical challenge in the runoff. Boakai's ability to maintain engagement in his strongholds while Weah's base participation declined was arguably the deciding factor in the election.